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“If Russia is Defeated The World Wins” — That’s a Prediction, Not a Fact

Fantasies, hopes, wishes, and denial are no match for reality.

6 min readSep 20


In the news, in our political discourse, and in social media, I often see people make claims that are predictions, not facts. A statement about the future of the war in Ukraine can often demonstrate wishful, magical thinking on a global scale. When cheerleaders of the Ukraine war effort tell me their opinions about the war in Ukraine, I ask myself the following question:

Are they stating a fact or making a prediction?

To paraphrase the cheerleaders for Ukraine, I’ve seen claims that look a lot like the following statements:

  • Ukraine is fighting for our freedom.
  • If Russia is defeated, we will have peace.
  • All Russia has to do is leave Ukraine and the war will end.
  • To have a permanent and lasting peace, we must beat the living shit out of Russia so as to remove from Russia its imperialist tendencies.

To know if Ukraine is really fighting for our freedoms, we would have to get inside their heads. We would have to analyze their statements. We would have to watch what they do to other people. We would have to see if their actions are congruent with their statements.

I believe that Ukraine is not fighting for our freedoms when it censures the media and when it tells American leadership to censor the media. I don’t believe that Ukraine is fighting for our freedoms when it outlaws or disbands political parties. When Ukraine’s representatives tell me that neutrality is not an option, I know for sure they’re not talking about freedom.

Some people tell me that if I’m not supporting Ukraine or if I don’t take a pledge of allegiance to support Ukraine in its fight against Russia, then I have unwittingly supported Russia.

I believe it is possible to be neutral about the war and promote peace at the same time. I believe it is possible to promote peace talks without supporting Russia or Ukraine. I believe that if both sides stop shooting, we will have a better chance of restoring peace in Ukraine than if either side scores a decisive win.