Biden May Have The Lead In The Polls, But Progressives Are Gaining On Him
And Warren and Sanders are leading the charge with better than 30% of the polling.
Check out the latest polling from Real Clear Politics:
I can recall the huge lead that Biden had when he started. Nationally, he still has a wide lead. But look at New Hampshire. Sanders is closing the gap. Look at Iowa, Warren is closing the gap. I saw the same thing with Hillary Clinton when she was running, too. She had a strong beginning and collapsing leads much later on.
If we do some math, we see that Sanders and Warren together are polling better than Joe Biden. Nationally, Biden is polling at 28%. Together, Sanders and Warren are polling at 33.6%, a lead that is greater than the margin for error. In Iowa that combined lead is even greater at 6%. In New Hampshire, it’s 34% to 21% or a lead of 13%. Even the New York Times reported that in a recent poll, there was a three-way tie between Biden, Warren, and Sanders.
The recent polling thoroughly dispels any notion that Biden is the presumed nominee. That was my first concern when Biden first announced his candidacy. I could see the press trying to do the same thing with Biden that they did with Hillary Clinton. They were trying to take someone with a great deal of power, and not very much popularity, and turn them into the candidate that we must vote for.
That is what gives me hope this time. I’m #stillsanders, but I’m not all that worried if he wins or not because he’s expanded the scope of the debate. I think it’d be great if he does win the nomination, but now there are at least two very solid progressive horses in the race. I’m also inclined to think that there is a tacit non-aggression agreement between Sanders and Warren and that they may consolidate their forces should one of them drop out. But I think they are both going to fight until the very end until the Democratic National Convention next year.
I also note that Biden is making numerous gaffes and that he lacks a ground game that both Sanders and Warren are running. Both Sanders and Warren are outraising Biden by significant margins. And both have very well organized teams working the streets to get the votes they need to win the primaries in the states. Sanders is showing greater determination than before. Warren is shining in the debates.
This time, I have real hope that we can finally cast aside the neoliberals and their ideas that they must remain beholden to the American Aristocracy for their money. For now, I remain optimistic.